Ecotourism: An obvious panacea or a looming conundrum

Lastly, to the numbers game, there is a conundrum that needs to be addressed. It's the thorniest issue of all and one that represents an awkward mirror at the very least, and quite possibly an existential threat if left unchecked.

Due to the shortcomings already expressed, getting precise data on the size and growth of ecotourism as a sector is extremely difficult. Nevertheless, we do have some idea. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), by 2019, Africa's travel and tourism industry had grown from US$75 billion in 2000 to US$186 billion by 2019, when there were 84 million international travellers (since COVID-19, the sector is again approaching these levels).

Looking ahead, the WTTC forecasts growth of at least 6.5% per annum over the next decade and suggest in a best-case scenario that tourism's combined contribution to continental economies could reach over US$300 billion, with close to double the number of travellers a possibility by 2033. If we then match Conservation Magazine's claim that in sub-Saharan Africa, four of every five international tourists arriving in Africa will visit a wildlife destination, we start to get an idea of the astronomical numbers.

For the politicians, economists, and accountants, this data clearly speaks to ecotourism as a golden goose for investment, growth, and profit. However, to the environmentalists, there must be concerns. How many more people and vehicles can Africa's protected areas take? How many more lodges, hotels, and airports, along with the infrastructure footprints, are required to accommodate these people before ecological degradation sets in? Has the erosion already begun?

It remains extremely difficult to measure benefits and negative consequences of ecotourism objectively. This allows everyone to continue operating within the grey areas of conflation and confusion, without consideration or consequence. In addition, operating leases and permits are at the discretion of governments, which means safari operators and researchers are often constrained into not speaking out over bad practices or poor management for fear of being expelled or having licences withdrawn.

If the goal for successful ecotourism is to be truly sustainable, the purveyors and scorekeepers need to understand and accept that the environment, its principal asset, operates within scientific and ecological constraints. Wilderness cannot be treated as an infinite or renewable resource. The industry urgently needs a visionary and united management process, one that accepts the ecological limits while balancing the demands of all stakeholders. Under the current paradigm and trends, ecotourism in the more popular destinations will not be ecologically or experientially sustainable.

Given these concerns, there is an added responsibility on prospective ecotourists looking at Africa. You need to be discerning and selective when choosing your agent and operator, and do so after due research and consideration, including asking serious questions about their credentials. And while travelling, if there is anything that concerns you, please speak up.