Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information

01/15/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 01/15/2025 05:01

Harmonised index of consumer prices - December 2024

Harmonised index of consumer prices - December 2024

Consumer prices
15 January 2025
  • Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased to 4.4% in December compared to 4.8% in November and 4.5% in October.
  • Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 3.5% in December compared to 3.8% in November.
  • The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for December stood at 3.16% compared to 3.20% in November.
  • The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were natural gas, tobacco and electricity.
  • However, the sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were motor fuels, liquid fuels, major household appliances, meat and furniture.
  • The harmonised index of consumer prices of December for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 17 January.

The inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)[1] decreased to 4.4% in December compared to 4.8% in November and 4.5% in October. The inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)[2] was 3.6% in December, compared to 3.8% in November and 3.5% in October. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to higher excise duty on tobacco and natural gas. Indeed, these modifications to taxation are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 3.5% in December, compared to 3.8% in November and 3.7% in October. Inflation without energy decreased to 3.4% in December compared to 3.7% in November.

Inflation for food products and non-alcoholic beverages amounts to 1.7% this month versus 2.0% the previous month. Inflation for oils amounts to 7.6% this month compared to 7.7% in November. For dairy products, inflation is now 0.7% versus 0.3% last month. Fish registers this month an inflation rate of 1.7% compared to 1.0% in November. Bread and cereals register in December an inflation rate of 1.7%, or a slight decrease compared to the rate of 1.8% observed in November. Inflation for meat amounts to 1.3% this month compared to 2.1% last month.

The contribution of energy to inflation has been negative from January 2023 to February 2024. It is now 1.4%, which is a slight decrease compared to last month (1.5%). As described below, energy inflation decreases. This is not an increase in energy cost, but a consequence of the extinction of the 12-month impact of the basic packages in the index. Food products provide a contribution of 0.3%.

Electricity is now 12.6% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 59.2% more expensive than in December last year. Domestic heating oil prices have gone down by 8.0% compared to last year.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in December was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (19.0%). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "Interior decoration and household appliances" (-0.2%). The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in December was "Housing, water and energy" with an effect of 1.4 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" (-0.5 percentage points).

Inflation[3] and effect[4] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Product group Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
HICP HICP-CT
Oct/24 Nov/24 Dec/24 Dec/24 Oct/24 Nov/24 Dec/24
0 Total expenditure 1.000 4.5 4.8 4.4 3.8
1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 157.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5
2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 49.0 19.6 18.9 19.0 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.8
3 Clothing and footwear 54.3 2.3 6.2 3.4 6.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
4 Housing, water and energy 164.5 12.3 13.4 11.3 12.7 1.5 1.6 1.4
5 Interior decoration and household appliances 74.4 1.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4
6 Health 85.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
7 Transport 108.9 -1.1 -0.4 1.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4
8 Communication 32.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
9 Recreation and culture 87.1 2.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3
10 Education 5.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Hotels, cafés and restaurants 93.1 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0
12 Various goods and services 88.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

  • The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources decreased compared to the previous month. In December, it amounted to 13.7% compared to 14.8% in November and 11.9% in October. Prices increased by 3.1% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 11.0%.
  • Inflation for processed food products in December remains at the same level as in November, or 6.9% compared to 7.4% in October. Prices have increased by 0.1% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate for the last twelve months is 5.6%.
  • Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 1.5% in December compared to 2.2% in November and 3.1% in October. Prices decreased by 0.6% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 2.6%.
  • Inflation for non-energy industrial goods went from 1.1% in October and 1.7% in November to 0.8% in December. Prices remain stable on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.7%.
  • Inflation for services (including rents) has slightly decreased to 3.7% compared to 3.8% in November and 3.9% in October. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 4.3%.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 3.5% in December. This is a decrease compared to the 3.8% rate registered in November. Average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 3.8%. Prices of this subaggregate have decreased by 0.5% on average compared to the previous month.

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Specific aggregates Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) 12-month average (%) Monthly change
Oct/24 Nov/24 Dec/24 Dec/24 Dec/24
Total expenditure 1.000,0 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.3 0.7
Fuels and energy sources 100,8 11.9 14.8 13.7 11.0 3.1
Processed food products 164,8 7.4 6.9 6.9 5.6 0.1
Unprocessed food 41,4 3.1 2.2 1.5 2.6 -0.6
Non-energy industrial goods 256,0 1.1 1.7 0.8 1.7 0.0
Services 436,9 3.9 3.8 3.7 4.3 1.0
HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) 857,7 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.8 0.5

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by naturalgas (1.10 percentage points). Tobacco had an impact of 0.78 percentage points. Finally, electricity had an effect of 0.30 percentage points.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2024 Dec/24
04.5.2 Natural gas 20.2 1.10
02.2.0 Tobacco 32.4 0.78
04.5.1 Electricity 34.9 0.30

The largest downward effect on inflation came from motor fuels (-0.24 percentage points). Domestic heating oil provided a negative effect of -0.17 percentage points. Major domestic appliances and meat each have a negative impact of -0.13 percentage points. Finally, furniture provided a downward effect of -0.12 percentage points.

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2024 Dec/24
07.2.2 Motor fuels 30.9 -0.24
04.5.3 Domestic heating oil 13.7 -0.17
05.3.1 Major domestic appliances 9.4 -0.13
01.1.2 Meat 41.1 -0.13
05.1.1 Furniture 24.9 -0.12

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the finalHICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for December. This inflation in Belgium in December amounted to 4.4%, a decrease compared to the rate of 4.8% observed in November. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 3.9% in December; an increase compared to an inflation rate of 3.8% in November. Inflation in France slightly increased from 1.7% in November to 1.8% in December. The first HICP flash estimate for December in Germany was 2.8%, an increase compared to November (2.4%).

Since the HICP at constant tax rates for December are not yet published by Eurostat, November is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 3.8% in November, slightly up from a rate of 3.5% in October. In Germany, this inflation has stabilised at 1.8% in November and October. That inflation in France slightly increased from 1.2% in October to 1.3% in November. In the Netherlands, inflation increased to 2.8% in November from 2.3% in October.

[1] In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.

The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.

Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:

  • The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
  • The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
  • The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
  • Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
  • Sales periods have been neutralised in the CPI , but are included in the same month in the HICP.
  • Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.

[2] The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.

[3] Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.

[4] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).