Turkmenistan could turn to be Cop 28's big methane win

Turkmenistan is under mounting pressure to act to curb methane emissions from its oil and gas production, and if it heeds those calls in time for the UN Cop 28 climate talks in Dubai, it could be a win for the climate and for a Cop presidency eager to turn pledges into concrete actions.

The Cop 28 presidency and several other climate-focused organisations speaking at the Turkmen energy forum in Dubai last week had a clear and consistent message for the country's state gas and oil companies - Turkmenistan has a "huge opportunity" to help the world limit its global warming to below 1.5°C by tackling methane leaks, and international organisations are willing to help. But the second implicit message was that if nothing is done soon, namely ahead of Cop 28, then the chance for good press for Turkmenistan - which could help it to attract foreign investors to develop its oil and gas production and refining capacity - will be lost.

Turkmenistan's choice of venue for its forum reflects deepening energy ties between it and the UAE, and the UAE will be held accountable for methane emissions at least in the areas at which it is producing. State-owned Turkmengaz and Adnoc in February made an initial agreement to jointly develop the second production phase of the giant Galkynysh gas field in southeast Turkmenistan. Dubai-based Dragon Oil, active in the Turkmen section of the Caspian Sea since 1999, plans to invest another $8bn in the next 15 years.

The oil and gas sector will be a focal point of Cop 28, having historically been left out of the conversation, the head of energy transition for Cop 28 Saamir Elshihabi, who is a senior executive at US energy firm Oxy, told delegates.

Turkmenistan taking steps to reign in its methane leaks would make a substantial contribution to limiting global warming, fitting the Cop 28 presidency's pragmatic action narrative. Methane is about 84 times more potent than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Turkmenistan alone emitted around 5mn t of methane from its oil and gas production in 2021 - 6pc of the global total - while it accounted for around a third of very large emissions events recorded by satellites, the head of the UN Environment Programme' (Unep) international methane emissions observatory Manfredi Caltagirone said.

UN-affiliated and other environmental organisations signalled their willingness to help Turkmenistan to curb its methane leaks. But an absence of commitments by the Turkmen government makes it hard to be hopeful that much will be achieved. Ashgabat is yet to sign the global methane pledge, and made no mention of an intention to do so.

UNEP has the "tools ready to support Turkmenistan to realise its potential leading up to Cop 28 and beyond", Caltagirone said. Almost three quarters of the emissions from oil and gas operations can be mitigated with existing technologies, of which over half can be done at no net cost, he said.

Failure to provide routine maintenance at ageing infrastructure is the main cause of methane emissions, and satellite technology has already identified the equipment at which the largest leakages take place, meaning that it would be straightforward to take action quickly, sources close to the matter told Argus. But the large clusters of sources and the scope of emissions suggest that operational changes will be needed to systematically address all sources, which will take time to deploy, emissions monitoring company GHGSat's chief executive Stephane Germain cautioned.

Neither the Turkmen government nor its state oil and gas companies gave any firm sign last week that they are considering a partnership to help limit their methane leaks. Ashgabat's commitments on methane emissions have so far been vague at most - the country's nationally determined contribution, or emissions pledge, lacks concrete targets.

And those with real influence over Turkmenistan's climate policy were absent from last week's forum, sources said. Turkmen president Serdar Berdimuhamedow would need to sign off any decision by the state oil and gas companies, they highlighted.

By Natasha Fielding

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