New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds uptick in approval of U.S. Supreme Court, but disapproval remains above 50%

Majority of those polled view justices' decisions as motivated mostly by politics, while opinion is divided on the Court's honesty and ethics

Aug. 9, 2024

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE - A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 43% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 57% disapprove. In May, approval was 39% and disapproval was 61%.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval

Among Adults

Poll dates	Approval
Approve	Disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	43	57
5/6-15/24	39	61
3/18-28/24	47	53
2/5-15/24	40	60
11/2-7/23	41	59
9/18-25/23	43	57
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll's national Supreme Court survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,005 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

Public opinion about recent decisions

The poll asked about seven recent decisions of the Supreme Court:

• Large majorities of the public favor the ruling that it does not violate the Second Amendment for the government to take guns away from people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from a court (S. v. Rahimi).
• Two-thirds favor the decision that maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, and rejected a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration's approval of the pill (FDA v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine).
• A small majority favors the decision that upheld city ordinances that prohibit people who are homeless from sleeping and camping on public property, ruling that such ordinances do not constitute cruel and unusual punishment prohibited by the Constitution (City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson).
• A similar small majority of the public favors a decision that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause (Trump v. Anderson).
• A majority opposes the decision that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives exceeded its statutory authority when it prohibited bump stocks which enable semiautomatic rifles to fire at speeds rivaling those of machine guns (Garland v. Cargill).
• A majority also opposes the decision that while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president (Trump v. U.S.)
• Two different question wordings were asked on the Court's decision that overturned the 1984 Chevron decision, which required courts to defer to executive agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes (the 2024 decision being Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo). A random half-sample was asked Version 1, and the other half-sample was asked Version 2. The majority reverses between the two wordings of the question, with a majority opposed to the ruling when the question simply says the ruling overturns deference to agencies, but a majority favoring the decision when the question adds that courts must exercise independent judgment on statutory interpretation.

When asking about Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, Version 1, which yielded majority opposition to the Court's ruling was worded:

In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Version 2, which found majority support for the ruling, added further description of the ruling:

In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes, ruling instead that courts must exercise their independent judgment on all questions of statutory interpretation made by agencies administering statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Table 2 summarizes opinion about all seven decisions.

Table 2: Favor or oppose the Court's decision

Among Adults

Case	Favor or oppose decision
Favor	Oppose
Remove guns from those under restraining order	76	24
Maintain current access to abortion medication	67	33
Overturn deference to executive agencies, wording Version 2	57	43
Restrict homeless camping	55	45
States cannot remove Trump from ballots under 14th Amendment	54	46
Overturn deference to executive agencies, wording Version 1	44	56
Ban on bump stocks exceeded statutory authority	43	57
Presidents have immunity for official acts	41	59
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: (Description of the decision) Do you favor or oppose this decision?
Note: See complete question wording at end of the release.
Note: Decision on deference to executive agencies was asked, of different half-samples of respondents, with two wordings.

Previous decisions

Among major decisions from earlier terms, a solid majority of the public favors the 2015 decision that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, with 68% approving of that ruling and 32% opposed (Obergefell v. Hodges).

A similarly large majority, 69%, favors the 2022 decision that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual's right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen). The decision is opposed by 31%.

The most controversial opinion of recent years overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states (Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization in 2022). This decision is opposed by 67% and favored by 33%.

Basis of the justices' decisions

In this latest survey, 57% say the justices' decisions are motivated mainly by politics, while 43% say decisions are based mainly on the law. In September 2019, 35% said mainly politics and 64% said mainly the law. The percentage saying that politics is the main motivation of justices began increasing in January 2022 and has remained at or above 50% since July 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Are justices' decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics

Among Adults

Poll dates	Perceived motivation
Mainly politics	Mainly the law
7/24-8/1/24	57	43
5/6-15/24	56	44
3/18-28/24	50	50
2/5-15/24	54	46
11/2-7/23	55	45
9/18-25/23	52	48
7/7-12/23	58	42
1/9-20/23	49	51
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/10-21/22	47	53
11/1-10/21	30	70
9/7-16/21	39	61
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/8-15/20	37	62
9/3-13/19	35	64
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices' decisions?

Among Republicans, 59% say the justices' decisions are based mainly on the law, whereas 55% of independents and 73% of Democrats say decisions are mainly based on politics. Table 4 shows these results.

Table 4: Justices' decisions based mainly on law or politics

Among Adults

Party ID	Basis of decisions
Mainly politics	Mainly the law
Total	57	43
Republican	41	59
Independent	55	45
Democrat	73	27
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices' decisions?

Amid debate about the ethical standards of the Court, the public is more likely to rate the honesty and ethical standards of Supreme Court justices as low or very low (38%) than to rate them as high or very high (27%). The remaining 34% rate the justices' ethical standards as average. Despite calls for a strengthened code of ethics for justices, opinions about the justices in this respect have not changed much since May 2023, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Rate the ethical standards of justices

Among Adults

Poll dates	Rating
Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
7/24-8/1/24	27	34	38
2/5-15/24	27	37	36
11/2-7/23	28	39	34
9/18-25/23	30	41	29
7/7-12/23	32	33	35
5/8-18/23	26	39	35
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?

Attention to news about the Court

Table 6 shows the trend in attention to news about the Court from September 2023 to July 2024. Few respondents had heard a lot about the Court in the past month in either September or November, but there has been some increase since. Following major decisions at the end of the term in late June and on July 1, awareness of news about the Court increased in July. Even so, more than half in each poll since September say they've heard only a little about the Court in the last month.

Table 6: Attention to news about the Court

Among Adults

Poll dates	How much heard or read
A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/24-8/1/24	32	54	14
5/6-15/24	27	52	21
3/18-28/24	30	50	19
2/5-15/24	24	56	20
11/2-7/23	15	60	25
9/18-25/23	17	61	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

The Court has had a majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents since 1970, a span of nearly 54 years, with the exception of a 14-month vacancy in 2016-17 which created a 4-4 tie in terms of such appointments. The current Court has six justices appointed by Republicans and three appointed by Democrats. Nonetheless, 24% of adults believe a majority of justices were definitely or probably appointed by Democratic presidents. Forty-one percent say a majority were probably appointed by Republican presidents and 35% say the majority were definitely appointed by Republicans. This opinion has varied modestly since 2019, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Majority of Court appointed by which party's presidents

Among Adults

Poll dates	Majority appointed by
Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
7/24-8/1/24	24	41	35
5/6-15/24	28	40	33
3/18-28/24	25	43	32
2/5-15/24	29	38	33
11/2-7/23	26	43	30
9/18-25/23	26	42	32
7/7-12/23	22	42	36
5/8-18/23	29	41	30
3/13-22/23	27	41	31
1/9-20/23	23	41	36
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Knowledge of which party's presidents have appointed a majority of the Court varies by party, with 26% of Republicans saying there is definitely a majority appointed by Republicans. Many more Democrats, 47%, say there is definitely a majority of Republican appointees. Likewise, 33% of Republicans say a majority were definitely or probably appointed by Democrats, while 14% of Democrats believe a majority were appointed by Democratic presidents. The full results are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Majority of Court appointed by which party's presidents, by party identification

Among Adults

Party ID	Majority appointed by
Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Total	24	41	35
Republican	33	42	26
Independent	34	43	20
Democrat	14	39	47
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 9. Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence of the five institutions, as well as the lowest percentage of those saying they have little or no confidence. Each of the other institutions has more respondents expressing little or no confidence than a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. The Presidency has the second highest level of confidence, followed by the U.S. Supreme Court.. Congress has the second lowest confidence rating, with 13% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 47% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress. The lowest confidence is in the national new media with just 12% having a great deal or a lot of confidence, and over half, 57%, with little or no confidence.

Table 9: Confidence in institutions

Among Adults

Institution	Confidence
Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Juries that decide criminal cases	39	41	20
The Presidency	32	33	35
U.S. Supreme Court	26	32	42
Congress	13	40	47
National news media	12	31	57
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

As approval of the Supreme Court has declined, so has confidence in the Court. In 2019, 39% had a great deal or a lot of confidence in the Court, while 16% had little or no confidence. In this July poll, the balance has sharply reversed, with 26% having a great deal or a lot of confidence while 42% have little or no confidence. The full trend is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Confidence in the Supreme Court, 2019-2024

Among Adults

Poll dates	Confidence
Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/24-8/1/24	26	32	42
5/6-15/24	24	37	40
3/18-28/24	30	37	33
2/5-15/24	25	35	40
11/2-7/23	28	36	36
9/18-25/23	28	37	35
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Perceived ideological leaning of the Court

In this July survey, 28% describe the Supreme Court as "very conservative," 30% describe it as "somewhat conservative," and 32% call the Court "moderate," while 7% see the Court as "somewhat liberal" and 3% believe it is "very liberal."

Views of the Court have shifted to the right since 2019, with fewer seeing the Court as moderate and more seeing it as conservative or very conservative, as shown in Table 11. The shift in perceptions is most apparent in May and July 2022, around the time of news of the Dobbs decision overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision.

Table 11: Perceived ideological leaning of the Court, 2019-2024

Among Adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
7/24-8/1/24	28	30	32	7	3
5/6-15/24	25	32	31	10	2
3/18-28/24	25	32	33	8	3
2/5-15/24	21	34	33	7	5
11/2-7/23	21	35	32	7	5
9/18-25/23	20	37	32	7	3
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following... The U.S. Supreme Court

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 1005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey concerning the 2024 presidential election were released previously, on Aug. 8.

Wording of questions about recent and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about recent decisions includes:

U.S. v. Rahimi

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that it does not violate the Second Amendment for the government to take guns away from people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from a court. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, rejecting a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration's approval of the pill. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld city ordinances that prohibit people who are homeless from sleeping and camping on public property, ruling that such ordinances do not constitute cruel and unusual punishment prohibited by the Constitution. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Trump v. Anderson

• In March, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo

• Version 1: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
• Version 2: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes, ruling instead that courts must exercise their independent judgment on all questions of statutory interpretation made by agencies administering statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Garland v. Cargill

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives had exceeded its statutory authority when it prohibited bump stocks, which enable semiautomatic rifles to fire at speeds rivaling those of machine guns. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Trump v. U.S.

• In July, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that, while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

The wording of questions about prior decisions include:

Obergefell v. Hodges

• In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen

• In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual's right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization

• In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

About Kevin Conway

Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or [email protected].