Minister of National Defence N. Dendias Attends “Transatlantic shifts and regional stakes: A Post – US elections analysis” Event

Minister of National Defence N. Dendias Attends "Transatlantic shifts and regional stakes: A Post - US elections analysis" Event

November 13, 2024

On Wednesday 13 October 2024, the Minister of National Defence Nikos Dendiasattended the "Transatlantic shifts and regional stakes: A Post - US elections analysis", which was organised by the American College of Greece and the Hellenic-American Chamber of Commerce. During the event, which was held in the facilities of the American College of Greece, Mr. Dendias discussed with the Professor of International Affairs and Director of the ACG Institute of Global Affairs, Konstantinos Filis.

In particular, during the discussion, the Minister of National Defence mentioned among other things the following:

• When I took office as Minister of National Defence last year, I posed a question to an informal thinking tank, which sometimes still serves as consultation for me. What will happen if President Trump wins the next elections and what will happen if his first action is to leave NATO? Where would Greece stand then? How would Greece react to that? Naturally, nobody expected and nobody expects President Trump to leave NATO. But once more, I would like to underline what your questions point out. That we are expecting a different approach than the one we are used to, at least during the past four years, in matters of international institutions, whether those are NATO or the United Nations etc. A simple answer to that would be that we are not in a position to make predictions and it would be wrong if we tried to. Speaking from our point of view, for us in Greece, the correct answer is to stay on course and keep presenting the United States with arguments, which state that we are in the right, but also explains to the USA why it is beneficial for them to support what we believe is right for us.

• We are not a great power. We are a middle-sized country, with a middle-sized defence budget, and with a population of 11 million people. We have more heavy tanks at our disposal than Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Holland, Belgium, and Luxembourg combined. And that is a simple way we can put it. Because, for example, countries like Holland, which have a GDP four or five times bigger than ours, do not possess a single heavy armoured vehicle. Not a single one. It is clear that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe believed that we will always live in peace and stability. And we were not prepared (as Europe) to face today's reality.

• Despite what everyone says about the rearmament of Europe being a top priority, fiscal limitations remain the same. There is only a clause, which states that if you surpass those fiscal limitations, then discussions can be held on the matter. But for countries like Greece, which are not like France or Spain, if they surpass those fiscal limitations, then our interest rates will sky-rocket, and if two years later the European Union accepts that we were right to surpass them, no difference and no point will be made. So, in actuality there is nothing that we can do to hasten our rearmament in Europe, despite the challenges that we face. And I must also add, that President Trump was absolutely right during his previous Presidency. Perhaps the way he made his point was "awkward", but what he said was meaningful. The taxpayers of the United States were in fact paying for Europe's defence. That was what was going on.

• Still, there are two viewpoints from which we have to investigate that matter. The NATO viewpoint and the European one, which in a way is the Greek viewpoint as well. From NATO's point of view, what must happen is that all countries must increase their budgets, some of them dramatically so. For example the Federal Republic of Germany. Three years ago, Chancellor Schultz claimed that a new era for the German Armed Forces was about to begin, with an enormous armaments project etc. Nothing has been done until now. I suppose that he will not achieve that in his two last months as Chancellor, because there are upcoming elections in Germany somewhere between January and the middle of February. So, all those countries must not only increase their expenses, but even more importantly than that, there must be a cultural change. The countries of Europe and NATO or at least most of them, must realise that that is something which must be protected. If one wants to live in peace, then one must be able to defend themselves. That is not something that happens without a price. Now, as regards the European Union and Greece: for the European Union I absolutely agree with President Macron's approach that Europe needs a defence arm. We cannot exclaim, as President Von Der Leyen did, that Europe is a geopolitical factor, and at the same time, unable to be in a position to show any kind of serious force anywhere. Not even in the Eastern Mediterranean. The European Union has two major operations at sea. The one is IRINI north of Libya, and I say that as an example, and the other one is ASPIDES in the Red Sea. Both have a Greek name. And you can guess why. Because we in little Greece started both. And contribute greatly to both. And there are only four more European countries who contribute as much.

• As regards Greece I have to be honest. We must be in a position to defend ourselves. We have allies and friends, but at the end of the day, we must be able to defend ourselves even without help. That is the ticket to survival.

• Right now, there are no easy solutions for Ukraine. I believe that if there is a plan in the mind of President Trump, that is something similar (to "freeze" the conflict where it is right now, and leave matters regarding sovereignty and territorial integrity be discussed in due time). Naturally, that will have enormous repercussions. The "freezing" of that conflict will affect Europe and Greece greatly. Apart from all the destruction that the Russian invasion of Ukraine brought upon Europe, I will underline a small benefit, which in reality is not that small; it is much more than that. The realisation of NATO and the USA regarding the usefulness of Western Thrace, and, in particular, the Port of Alexandroupolis. For example, the Port of Alexandroupolis is closer to Odessa than any other sea route. And regardless of what happens in that conflict, NATO and the United States will always need the Port of Alexandroupolis and Western Thrace, in order to be able to communicate with Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Ukraine.

• The matter of the Port of Alexandroupolis was first discussed in the first agreement that I had the honour to sign with Secretary Pompeo, during Trump's first administration. It was the first time that Alexandroupolis was mentioned in an agreement between Greece and USA. And I must say that we were right after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• The Middle East is a different matter. We know what President Trump believes deep inside. He gave us clear indications during his last presidency. Additionally, we must value something else too, in which we were right from a geopolitical perspective. We think of the conflict between Israel and the Arab world in an old-fashioned manner. That is no longer the case. And that was evident through the Abraham Accords. There is a completely new realignment. There is a realignment of Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel, and certain conservative Arab countries, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Those countries do not like what is going on in Gaza and are not pleased with the victims there, but even so, it is clear that they share the political goal of crushing Hamas and Hezbollah. So, Greece has an advantage, because we maintain very close relations with Israel and those conservative Arab countries. There is a treaty, allow me to call it a defence treaty, with the United Arab Emirates, a treaty with Egypt, which you know of, and we have a very good understanding with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. So, I believe that we are in a good position.

• During the previous Trump administration, we managed not only to maintain Hellenic-American relations on the same level, but really improve them to the highest levels of all time.

Allow me to remind you that on October 2019 and during the Trump administration, I managed to sign the first amendment of MDCA with Mike Pompeo. And the friendship between President Erdogan and President Trump was already existent then. But that was exactly the same agreement that made mention to Alexandroupolis, and which outraged President Erdogan, who openly criticised it, only a month after its signing.

• The 3+1 cooperation began under Trump. As did many initiatives. Many initiatives in the Eastern Mediterranean began during the first Trump administration. I do not mean that we are strolling in a rose garden. This is not what we are expecting. But what I am saying is that only the fact that President Trump is the newly elected President of the United States does not mean that the balances between Greece and Turkey towards the superpower will change.

• To a great extent, we are connected to the defensive establishment of the United States. The greatest part of our Air Force, with the exception of the Mirage and Rafale aircraft, come from the United States. We are part of the F-35 programme. The F-35 is the most modern stealth strike fighter in the world right now, with the possible exception of the F-22, which, however, is not exported. We are becoming part of the new Constellation Frigate programme along with the United States. The Constellation will be the new Frigate class of the US Navy. Last year we signed an agreement, according to which we will study the common shaping and specifications of said Frigate, and part of them will be manufactured in Greece for our own use. Additionally, we will be in a position to serve US vessels in the future. There are hundreds of programmes between us and the United States. And allow me to say, without pretending to be a fan of Trump, that at the same time Greece was not satisfied in particular matters during Biden's administration, even though President Biden is a friend of Greece. I have heard him many times with my own ears call himself "Bidenopoulos". Regardless of all that, there was a letter by Blinken, which promised Greece three LCS class Frigates, a number of tanks and C-130s etc. None of the statements of that letter was implemented, even though two years have gone by.

• What we achieved is possibly an enormous programme for Greece. Partly because during the years of the financial crisis from 2010 to 2019, there were practically minimal investments to our defence. In order to maintain our current capabilities we need two billion years annually for defence. So, if you multiply that amount by ten, that means that defence investments of 20 billion Euros are missing. Now we are trying to make up for that missing amount. We are investing two billion years annually, but that does not cover the 20 billion missing from past years. Having said that, two billion Euros a year is an enormous amount for Greek taxpayers. Now, there is a rule in the Ministry of National Defence. Among other criteria, we judge each programme based on the investment percentage to Greek industry. For example, we participate in the Constellation programme with the United States, because those vessels will be manufactured in Greek shipyards and because the United States have promised that we will maintain their vessels too. The vessels of Mediterranean, Red Sea and Indian Ocean fleets. So, in each individual programme, what is invested in the Greek defence industry is a very serious matter for us.

• I was part of the management group, which worked on very serious crises with Turkey, during the previous Trump administration in 2020. And as some of you probably remember, we were really close to an actual conflict. You might remember the time when a Greek Frigate collided with a Turkish one. And had it not been for the capabilities of the two Captains to disengage and maintain their cool, maybe a much more important incident between the two countries might have happened. And I say that in a very mild manner in order to avoid the use of the word "war". That was the time, I must say openly, that Mike Pompeo was always available, answered on his mobile phone, and was ready to offer his best service to both countries, in order to achieve de-escalation. And he always gave me the impression that I was talking to a friend. And when I had to meet him, there were things, which had to be said and could not be said on the phone. He was in Vienna and called me from there. He paused his visit there and dedicated an hour of his time to listen to me and do the best he could in order to aid in the de-escalation between us and our neighbours. I really hope that Secretary Rubio and the future Minister of Defence, whoever that might be, will have a similar approach to the matters of our area. But then again, I would like to end with my previous observation. We must be in a position to defend ourselves. This constitutes a constitutional obligation for every government of this country, but also our ticket to survival.