Our Two Cents: The Car Industry’s Worst Predictions

My last boss in the corporate world had a great phrase he used to weasel out of potentially ridiculous plans, saving our department countless hours of pointless work and meaningless deliverables. It went something like this: "I have [insert concerns here] mostly because I lost my crystal ball years ago."

Planning for the future is paramount in an industry with as many parts as the car business. But sometimes crystal balls should be lost, because we've all been affected by ridiculous predictions. So here's the question posed to our team, in the latest episode of Our Two Cents: What are some of the worst industry predictions that influenced cars/buying habits but proved to be dead wrong? I think you'll enjoy the answers.

The "Last" American Convertible

That aged well.Cadillac

The debacle surrounding the 1976 Cadillac Eldorado convertible has always fascinated me. Buyers flocked to dealers for "the last of the convertibles" in a hype-fueled fervor that spun up faster than the rational mind could realize that, as easily as the company had written the decree, it could reverse that decree. Customers were buying investments based on the promise that the profit-driven company would not reverse its word, should such a reversal make financial sense.

It seems hard to believe that convertibles would actually go away, especially when the push for such a movement came from inside the house. - Kyle Smith

EVs Will Be the End of ICE

Eric Weiner

Most recently, the obvious example of wrong predictions is that everyone would rush to buy EVs. After the initial wave of early adopters, the great middle masses of car buyers are putting the brakes on that movement, and have voted with their dollars for hybrids instead.

That could easily change over time, but for now automakers like GM are having to scramble to provide the vehicle configurations that consumers actually want to buy, rather than those that regulators in Washington, D.C., want to decree that they buy. (And, for the record, I say this as an avowed liberal on most fronts.) - Joe DeMatio

Car Phones

Optional mobile phone for the 1985 Continental Mark VIIFord

I'll get real niche: In-car phones. The misstep was in assuming that something that had existed on its own (the telephone) would somehow be made better when tethered to another piece of technology.

Maybe this is revisionist history with the added benefit of hindsight, but someone should have known that telephones would advance and innovate just like home computers. It feels like someone should have seen the leap from hard-wired phones to wireless phones coming far enough in advance to curtail the waste of time and money trying to stuff the phone into a car. Readers, feel free to filet me for this one in the comments. - Nathan Petroelje

That Ain't Happening in 1976

For the given 20-year timeline of 1956-76, everything about the predictions in this video from GM are terrible. - Stefan Lombard

OPEC Will Kill The V-8

Ford

I remember reading back issues of car magazines from the 1970s and 1980s that suggested oil prices would remain high enough to lower demand for V-8 engines to the point of unprofitability, and eventual extinction. The threat was real; even the small-block Chevy and Ford engines were downsized to save the V-8. But by the late 1980s, the small-block V-8 came back just as strong as pre-OPEC times, and options like the Turbocharged Ford 2.3 died rather quickly. (Perhaps OPEC did put a nail in the big-block's coffin?)

These days the V-8 might actually be dying, as it is gone from Chrysler Stellantis' shelves, the Camaro is dead, and 1000+ horsepower EVs are the de facto kings of torque. The new Mustang still has a V-8 and loyalists abound (even in V-8-hungry India), so perhaps the pony car can turn into an American alternative to the likes of BMWs and Porsches. It looks like that pivot is happening, and might save the V-8 from total extinction. Fingers crossed. - Sajeev Mehta

Physical Buttons Are History

Much better.

For me, it's the assumption that everyone wants a smartphone experience in their car. Yes, it's cheaper for automakers to install touchscreens than it is to make physical buttons, but focus groups also suggested customers wanted this type of technology. Turns out, they did not.

Physical buttons are easier to manipulate while the car is in motion, without looking, and a number of tests (including this one from Sweden) demonstrate that they're safer. If you've ever tried to change the climate control in a VW ID.4 using the haptic slider while on a pockmarked Southfield Freeway in Metro Detroit, with cars 4 inches away from you in either lane, you realize how asinine this crap is.

Voice control is a neat trick, but it's slow, annoying, and never works when a toddler is crying in the background. They want to hear Frozen's "Let it Go" and absolutely not "Love is an Open Door," and that the song should be changed IMMEDIATELY. When that happens, you can't get them to quiet down enough to say "Hey Mercedes, play _____." - Eric Weiner

***

Check out the Hagerty Media homepage so you don't miss a single story, or better yet, bookmark it. To get our best stories delivered right to your inbox, subscribe to our newsletters.

Public link

Please use the above public link if you want to share this noodl on another website.