Fearless Forecasts, Spring 2024

THE DRAMATIC DEAL that provides nearly $100 billion in aid to U.S. allies may have been a turning point - a sign that Democrats and Republicans can actually get along. Who knew??

THERE'S PLENTY ON THE PLATE in the next few weeks, so here are ten fearless forecasts for the busy domestic and geopolitical outlook:

1. A courageous politician: House Speaker Mike Johnson is safe, a new media darling, and the Republicans wouldn't dare to oust him. Johnson did the right thing, oblivious to the impact on his political fate. And now he's a hero.

2. TikTok: A ban is increasingly likely, but court challenges could persist for another year.

3. Federal Reserve: Inflation data may look a little better by late spring; a rate cut in July is still on the table - one of two this year.

4. Border/immigration reform: Johnson and the Republicans will push for legislation, but prospects for a deal are dim.

5. Shifting polls: The presidential race is now tied - and it's way too early to count out Joe Biden.

6. Trump in court: The scowling former president isn't helping himself; a gag order hangs over his many trials.

7. Ukraine war gridlock: Aid to Kyiv will arrive by early May, but the stalemate will persist as long as there's no settlement on Crimea.

8. Negotiations in the Mideast: Iran has been humiliated but other enemies of Israel are prepared to fight into the summer. Hostage negotiations may resume.

9. U.S.-China relations: The unsuccessful visit to Beijing by Janet Yellen got little publicity, for good reason.

10. Hurricane alert: A shift in the jet stream this spring raises the very real risk of a record hurricane season.

BOTTOM LINE: The stock market selloff has taken the froth out of the economy, and now there are positives: adults are in charge in Washington, economic growth will slow slightly downward to a moderate pace, and interest rates may level off. April could be a turning point on many fronts.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

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