CAPIS - Capital Institutional Services Inc.

11/09/2023 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/09/2023 07:23

CAPIS Morning Note – 11/09/23: Stock Rally Continues, Can S&P 500 Clear 4400

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.28% at 4378.38 from Monday higher by 0.18% at 4365.98. The overnight high was hit at 4410 at 5:50 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4390.25 at 6:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 20 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight rangeis at 19.70 from 25.40 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15. The average for May-October average was 22.06 from 20.96. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 4.75 points which is +0.11% at 6:25 a.m. EST.

Can the SPX Clear 4400?

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: VSAT +0.47, MARA +0.46, LGND +0.40, HUBS +0.35, MFC +0.31, JXN +0.27, ORA +0.21, TWLO +0.21, BE +0.19, RAMP +0.19, AMC +0.16, CDNA +0.16, SPCE +0.14, AFRM +0.13, DUOL +0.13, ZIP +0.12, MGM +0.12, PUBM +0.11, DIS +0.11, ARM +0.10, KGS +0.09, MODG +0.09, LYFT +0.09, ATO +0.08, ETNB +0.08, CDRE +0.08, RDNT +0.07, AEE +0.05, RGNX +0.05, GNK +0.05, SOVO +0.05, APP +0.05, SANA +0.04, XENE +0.04, BGS +0.04, TTEC +0.04, ENS +0.03, G +0.03, PYCR +0.03, CDLX +0.02, ENV +0.02, HBM +0.02, JAMF +0.02, KGC +0.02, SILK +0.02, CYRX +0.01, FNV +0.01, NTRA +0.01, STKL +0.01, MGNI +0.01, CTVA +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: CERT +0.00, FLT +0.00, COOK +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: CART (20.08), TTWO (2.19), WOW (1.30), RVNC (0.94), LPSN (0.72), EHTH (0.52), ASH (0.30), SUPN (0.30), TTGT (0.30), FICO (0.28), KNTK (0.26), STR (0.24), PRA (0.22), BYND (0.20), ASLE (0.18), DIOD (0.09), JAZZ (0.09), DNA (0.07), IONQ (0.04), CDE (0.04), HP (0.03), ZD (0.03), RKLB (0.03), WHD (0.03), LAZR (0.02), APPS (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Tiptree (TIPT) Announces Fortegra Filing of Registration Statement for Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Nova Vision Acquisition Corp. (NOVV) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Period to Consummate Business Combination to December 10, 2023.
    • ShoulderUp Technology Acquisition Corp. (SUAC) Announces Letter of Intent for a Business Combination with Airspace Experience Technologies, Inc.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CCCS: Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering of 65 Million Shares of Common Stock, Including Concurrent Common Stock Repurchase.
    • MYGN: Pricing of Upsized Offering of Common Stock.. 6,470,588 shares @$17. (GS, MS and WFC Bookmanager)
    • SPR: Announces Pricing of Offering of 9,090,909 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • SPR: Announces Pricing of 3.250% Exchangeable Senior Notes Due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADIL: Filed Form S-1.. 4,340,426 Shares Common Stock.
    • BRSH: Filed Form F-1.. 9,500,000 Common Shares.
    • CNXA: Filed Form S-1.. 5,365,871 Shares of Common Stock.
    • INM: Filed Form S-1.. 12,569,564 Common Shares.
    • LZ: Secondary Offering of Shares of Common Stock. (RBC Bookmanager)
    • MYGN: Announces Proposed Offering of $100 Million of Shares of Common Stock.
    • NCLH: Filed Form S-3ASR ordinary shares.
    • TGL: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 12,909,888 Shares of Common Stock Pre-funded Warrants to Purchase up to 12,909,888 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CCCS: Announces proposed secondary offering of 50 million shares of common stock by affiliates of Advent International, including concurrent common stock repurchase.
    • FOLD: Files for 2,467,104 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • PR: Files for 334,064,083 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • AGBA: Entered Into Term Sheets for US$6.2 Million Private Placement Offering.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FATE: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • VSTM: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • Sequans Communications (SQNS) entered into a Security Purchase Agreement with Renesas Electronics America Inc (RNECF unit) providing for the issuance of $6 mln subordinated note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • MSC: Studio City Finance Limited Announces Tender Offer for Up to US$75 Million of Its 6.000% Senior Notes due 2025.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours:
    • Trading Up: PUBM 19%, CDNA 19%, APP 18%, BE 17%, RAMP 15%, PYCR 14%, SPCE 13%, NTRA 10%, AFRM 10%, TTGT 9%, DUOL 8%, ZIP 8%, VSAT 8%, TWLO 7%, ADMA 7%, COOK 7%, HUBS 7%, INFN 6%, JXN 6%, SILK 6%, CNM 5%, CYRX 5%, CPRX 5%, LGND 5%, RGNX 5%, MARA 5%, SUPN 5%, MFC 4% of note.
    • Trading Down: ATRA -59%, CDLX -34%, SMR -25%, MODG -18%, KRUS -16%, APPS -15%, BIRD -14%, BILL -14%, LAZR -10%, RVNC -10%, ASLE -8%, ARM -8%, CUTR -8%, CCCS -7%, PRA -6%, AMC -6%, DIOD -6%, ENV -6%, G -6%, UHAL -6%, OFIX -5%, MYGN -4%, ME -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: DIS, LYFT, ARM, DUOL TWLO (CNBC)
    • Disney (DIS) Tops Profit Estimates, expands $2 Billion in Cost Cuts. (Bloomberg)
    • BMO: The drop in oil prices is "likely to see next week's CPI report .. dip back into the low 3's. .. the Fed couldn't have asked for much more to help it achieve a soft landing." (Carl Q)
    • Snap (SNAP) Lays Off Product Managers as Spiegel Revamps Workforce. (TheInformation)
    • Japan PM Kishida Considering Holding Talks With China's Xi On Sideline Of Apec Summit Around Nov 16. (Nhk)
    • Fed Probes Morgan Stanley's (MS) International Wealth-Management Practices over proper vetting of new clients. (WSJ)
    • Bill Holdings (BILL) Nears $1.95 Billion Payments Deal for Melio. (Bloomberg)
    • Virgin Galactic (SPCE) to cut approximately 18% of its workforce to decrease costs and realign resources.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:Core & Main (CNM) to join S&P MidCap 400; ACI Worldwide (ACIW) to join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • 3M (MMM) Announces Leadership Changes.
    • AppLovin (APP) CFO H. Chen to leave the company at the end of the year.
    • Century Therapeutics (IPSC) appoints Brent Pfeiffenberger as CEO.
    • EBIX Files to delay its 10-Q.
    • Genpact (G) announces a leadership succession plan.
    • Hyliion (HYLN) Receives NYSE Continued Listing Standards Notice.
    • Infinera (INFN) to delay 10-Q filing, material weaknesses in its internal control.
    • Kohl's (KSS) announces a planned transition to its Board of Directors.
    • Luokung (LKCO) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) announces the appointment of Mr. Jason Attew as President and Chief Executive Officer.
    • Sharecare (SHCR) announced that healthcare industry veteran and board member Brent Layton will succeed Arnold as CEO.
    • Thermon Group (THR) appoints John U. Clarke to non-executive Chairman.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • First Advantage Corp (FA) approved a one-year extension of existing buyback program.
    • MGM Resorts (MGM): $2 Billion repurchase plan.
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) Board Authorizes New $500.0 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Nomad Foods (NOMD) approved a new share repurchase authorization of up to $500 million. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Atmos Energy (ATO) increases quarterly dividend to $0.805 per share from $0.74 per share.
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) increases quarterly dividend to $0.95 from $0.91 per share.
    • Brookfield Reinsurance (BNRE) Declares Regular Quarterly Distribution
    • Cogent Communications (CCOI) approves a 1.1% sequential increase to the quarterly dividend.
    • Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) to increase to 77 eurocents per share, share buy-backs of up to 2 billion euros planned.
    • Lancaster Colony (LANC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.90 per share from $0.85 per share.
    • Nomad Foods (NOMD) intend to initiate in 2024 a quarterly dividend with details to follow.
    • RLI Corp (RLI) declares special cash dividend of $2.00 per share.
    • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per common share.
    • SharkNinja (SN) Board of Directors approved the declaration and payment of a special cash dividend of $1.08 per share.
    • TransDigm Group (TDG) Declares a Special Cash Dividend of $35.00 Per Share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What's Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +6,Dow Jones +54, NASDAQ +3, andRussell 2000 +11. (as of 7:58 a.m. EST). Asia and Europe arehigher this morning. VIX Futuresare at 15.87 from 16.20 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copperare lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oilare higher with Natural Gaslower. US 10-year Treasurysees yields at 4.535% from 4.614% yesterday. The U.S. Dollaris higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Poundand higher against the Yen. Bitcoinis at $36,704 from $35,355 yesterday, higher by 3.06% this morning.

Sector Action- (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities, Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Major stock indexes ended mostly higher Wednesday, building on a long run of gains. The S&P 500 added 0.1%, notching an eighth-straight session in the green. The Nasdaq Composite also added 0.1%, now higher on nine consecutive days, its longest winning streak in two years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%, or 40 points. Demand for U.S. Treasurys passed another test erected by Wall Street, giving traders little reason to pull back from the stock market. A $40 billion auction of 10-year Treasurys was better-received by investors than many expected just weeks ago. The benchmark yield, which falls when bond prices rise, has declined from above 5% late last month to 4.522% Wednesday, down from 4.570% a day earlier. (WSJ - edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:
  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SGHC +1.96, AZN +0.89, MT +0.72, LI +0.60, TDG +0.48, WIX +0.40, STNG +0.38, SLVM +0.37, KELYA +0.24, FREY +0.23, RCI +0.15, SN +0.14, NVMI +0.14, NTLA +0.12, FVRR +0.11, EPC +0.08, WRK +0.07, XMTR +0.07, DCBO +0.07, EYE +0.05, NOMD +0.05, YETI +0.05, TPR +0.03, UTZ +0.02, SHCR +0.02, WB +0.02, VERX +0.01, MTSI +0.01, USFD +0.01, BN +0.01, HIMX +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: IMVT +0.00, GDRX +0.00, WWW +0.00, FA +0.00, BDX +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: CCOI (0.20), WD (0.12), COMM (0.05), IRWD (0.04), DNUT (0.03), RDNT (0.02), GRAB (0.01), HBI (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: DGII, EVBG, NVAX, RBC, SCSC of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • PositiveGuidance: ADMA, CPRX, RAMP, PYCR, INFN, PUBM, SUPN, RKLB, IONQ, NTRA, SPCE, TWLO, CDNA, DUOL, LI, WIX, SONY, YETI, DCBO, NOMD, SN of note.
  • NegativeGuidance: ASH, DNA, OFIX, LAZR, MODG, CDLX, TTEC, RKLB, DIOD, ENV, ZIP, TTWO, G, VSH, K, WWW, UTZ, SHCR, HBI, XMTR, RBC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BAK 24%, BE 19%, APP 16%, PUBM 16%, CDNA 14%, AFRM 14%, INFN 12%, SPCE 11%, MARA 10%, NTRA 10%, TTGT 9%, RAMP 9%, ME 9%, DUOL 9%, CYRX 8%, PYCR 8%, JXN 7%, GRAB 7%, VSAT 7%, HUBS 6%, CNM 6%, TWLO 6%, ADMA 6%, WIX 6%, YETI 6%, ZIP 5%, XENE 5%, LGND 5%, SUPN 5%, SILK 5%, DIS 4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ATRA -39%, CDLX -37%, SMR -27%, MODG -18%, KRUS -16%, WOW -16%, APPS -15%, BIRD -12%, LPSN -12%, RVNC -10%, DNA -10%, BILL -10%, CCCS -9%, LAZR -9%, OFIX -8%, DIOD -8%, GNW -8%, ENV -7%, FVRR -6%, PRA -6%, EHTH -6%, G -6%, ASLE -5%, MYGN -5%, ARM -5%, IONQ -4%, FICO -4%, UHAL -4%, GDRX -4% of note.

Insider Action: LTC sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.NARI, VRNA sees Insider buying withsmart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. "rehashed news". Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Billionaire Ken Griffin says peace dividend over, high inflation to last decades. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Jews who never wanted to own guns are buying them in Florida. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Futures steady after S&P 500 eight day run: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Summary of last night's Republican Debate. (CNBC)
  • Feds bust high end brothel run by Asians that could have compromised D.C.'s best and brightest on national security. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: Money and the transformation of baseball data. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily: Supreme Court tests its own limit on guns. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: "We walked into a wasteland". BBC goes into Gaza with Israeli soliders. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: Veterans are losing their homes as mortgage relief ends. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches down to 82% from 88%.

Geopolitical:

  • President's Public Schedule:
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 10:10 a.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Rockford, Illinois at 10:30 AM arrives in Rockford, Illinois at 12:25 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks highlighting his commitment to delivering for working families and creating good-paying union jobs, as well as the UAW's historic agreement that includes bringing thousands of UAW jobs back to Belvidere and reopening a plant, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Rockford, Illinois en route to the Chicago, Illinois at 3:55 p.m. EST, arrives at Chicago Midway International Airport, Chicago, Illinois at 4:45 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a campaign reception, 6:00 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Chicago Midway International Airport, Chicago, Illinois en route to O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, Illinois at 7:15 p.m. EST, arrives at the White House at 9:25 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out from October 11th through October 27th. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by -5.93%. The 27th marked the low in the S&P 500 before the current rally began.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Natural Gas Report (delay) 10:30 a.m. EST
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 9:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 11:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 2:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News:

  • GFL Environmental (GFL) purchases Fielding Environmental from Brown Gibbons Lang & Company.
  • Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) advises that it has entered into a purchase agreement to acquire the Reldan Group of Companies.
  • Transdigm (TDG) to acquires CPI's Electron Device business for about $1.385B in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Citi China Investor Conference
    • Deutsche Bank AutoTech Conference
    • Stifel Midwest One-on-One Growth Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Baird Global Industrial Conference
        • Truist Securities BioPharma Symposium
        • UBS BioPharma Conference
        • Wolfe Research Wealth Symposium
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: APLD, ARAY, BR, CHOR, ELYS, UP
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACIU, ANET, APO, ATH, CUE, HCA, EYPT, GS, HCA, MQ, PECO, VEEV, VYNE, XRAY
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Brain Disorders and Neuroscience Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • BIO-Europe
        • Gartner IT Symposium
        • Rockwell Automation Fair
        • Smart City Expo World Congress
        • Trimble Dimensions Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this "Upgrade/Downgrade" section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day's Upgrades and Downgrades: